Forecasters see more active 2008 hurricane season

By Christopher Doering
Thu Aug 7, 2008
(Reuters) -

Earlier this week, the Colorado State University hurricane research team also raised its Atlantic forecast for this year saying it expected 17 tropical storms expected to form, and nine of them to strengthen into hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 tropical storms with six hurricanes, including two major hurricanes, NOAA said. The hurricane season officially started on June 1 and typically peaks between late August and mid-October.

A wild card going forward is the possible development of either La Nina or El Nino. La Nina generally results in conditions that favor hurricanes in the Atlantic while its opposite effect, El Nino, generates wind shear that makes it difficult for storms to stay together.

The most recent La Nina period has ended, but it's effects are still being seen.

Bell said both conditions were neutral over the next few months, but "after that it's a bit uncertain regarding the winter."

NOAA, university and other forecast groups have called for active seasons during the past few years only to have little storm development. Only one minor storm reached the United States during the 2007 season and it escaped any impact in 2006.

The U.S. Gulf Coast, Mexico, Caribbean and Central American countries were battered during 2005. A record four major hurricanes hit the United States, including Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, killing around 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast and causing $80 billion in damage. The 2004 season saw Florida struck by four powerful hurricanes.